Average global temperatures are forecast to reach near-record levels in the next five years, \u200cwith Arctic temperatures expected to warm faster than other regions, a report by the UN weather agency and the UK\u2019s Met Office said on Thursday.<\/p>\n
The annual report, which gives regional predictions for temperatures and rain, predicts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3\u00b0C and 1.9\u00b0C above \u200bthe 1850-1900 pre-industrial period.<\/p>\n
“There’s very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature \u200bis continuing to rise,” Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, told Reuters.<\/p>\n
In the \u20602015 Paris Agreement, governments promised to try to prevent the average global temperature rise from exceeding 1.5 \u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, \u200babove which severe climate events were seen growing in intensity.<\/p>\n
The report said it is very \u200blikely that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 11.5 \u00b0C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.<\/p>\n
It also predicts there will be one year between 2026 and 2030 that average global temperatures will exceed the warmest year on record, \u200b2024, when they surpassed 1.5 \u00b0C above the pre-industrial era for the first time.<\/p>\n
Temporarily crossing the 1.5 \u00b0C threshold does not mean \u200bthe Paris Agreement has failed, as it refers to a long-term average over 20 years rather than a single year’s exceedance, Seabrook said, \u200cwhile noting \u2060that as the world gets closer to that threshold, it was increasingly likely to pass it more often.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly,\u201d Seabrook added.<\/p>\n
More severe weather events<\/p>\n
Arctic winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere over the next five years are projected to rise at more than 3-1\/2 times \u200bthe global average, reaching around \u200b2.8\u00b0C above the 1991\u20132020 baseline, \u2060according to the report.<\/p>\n
Arctic sea-ice is expected to melt in the month of March over the next half decade in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.<\/p>\n
Arctic warming could \u200balso disrupt weather systems and prompt more severe weather events, especially in northern parts of \u200bthe world, Seabrook \u2060said.<\/p>\n
Wetter weather in the northern hemisphere over the next five winters is also predicted, as well as wet periods in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel during May-September, while contrastingly dry weather is forecast for this season in the Amazon.<\/p>\n
A strong El Nino \u2060is also \u200bpredicted for winter this year, which could persist into 2027, driving up \u200bglobal temperatures to potential record-breaking levels due to the heating of the Pacific Ocean, Seabrook said.<\/p>\n
El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the \u200bcentral and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and 12 months.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"