The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on Friday that most parts of South Asia were likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 southwest monsoon season, while temperatures were expected to remain higher than average.<\/p>\n
El Ni\u00f1o is a climatic phase in the Pacific Ocean marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures, while its counterpart, La Ni\u00f1a, brings cooler-than-average waters. Together, they form the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system, a key driver of global weather patterns.<\/p>\n
The outlook was finalised at the 34th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-34), held in Mal\u00e9, Maldives, with participation from experts representing national meteorological and hydrological services of nine countries, alongside international climate organisations.<\/p>\n
According to an official statement from the PMD, the forum noted that \u201cbelow normal rainfall is most likely during the 2026 southwest monsoon season (June\u2013September) over most parts of South Asia, particularly across the central parts of the region.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, the forum noted regional variation, stating that \u201csome areas over the north-western, northeastern, and parts of the southern region are likely to experience normal to above normal rainfall.\u201d<\/p>\n
The statement also highlighted rising temperatures, warning that \u201cduring the season, minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be above normal across most of South Asia.\u201d<\/p>\n
On major climate drivers, the forum said that \u201ccurrently, ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are transitioning toward an El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d<\/p>\n
It added that, \u201cbased on global climate model forecasts, there is strong consensus among experts that El Ni\u00f1o conditions are likely to develop during the 2026 monsoon season.\u201d<\/p>\n
Regarding the Indian Ocean, the statement noted, \u201cNeutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently prevail over the Indian Ocean,\u201d but added that \u201cclimate models indicate that a positive IOD phase is likely to emerge later in the monsoon season.\u201d<\/p>\n
Participants at the forum reviewed both observed and projected climatic conditions, including ENSO, IOD, northern hemisphere winter and spring snow cover, and land surface temperature anomalies, all of which can influence monsoon performance.<\/p>\n
The meeting included representatives from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Regional Climate Centre in Pune, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the Japan Meteorological Agency, the Korea Meteorological Administration, and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, among others.<\/p>\n
The forum also cautioned about forecast uncertainty, noting that \u201cglobal climate model predictions prior to and during the spring season generally have noticeable uncertainty due to the spring barrier in seasonal predictability.\u201d<\/p>\n
It added that \u201cother regional and global factors, as well as intra-seasonal features of the region, can also affect the seasonal climate patterns.\u201d<\/p>\n
According to meteorological projections, the activation of El Nino could lead to higher temperatures, reduced wind speeds, and below-average rainfall in Pakistan. In extreme cases, this may also trigger drought-like conditions in certain regions.<\/p>\n
The PMD had issued a heatwave alert on Tuesday, warning that the southern parts of the country could experience a low-intensity heatwave between April 29 and May 3. During this period, temperatures may soar to as high as 52\u00b0C in some areas.<\/p>\n
Historical climate data shows that May and June are typically the hottest months of the year in Pakistan. Areas most vulnerable to extreme heat include southern Punjab, upper Sindh, and southeastern Balochistan, where average temperatures range between 43\u00b0C and 45\u00b0C. Observational data suggests that temperatures in these regions are already running 2-4\u00b0C above normal.<\/p>\n
Explaining the science behind the phenomenon, PMD spokesperson and Deputy Director Anjum Nazir Zaigham stated that El Ni\u00f1o and La Ni\u00f1a were two phases of the same climatic system. During El Ni\u00f1o, waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than usual, directly influencing weather conditions in Pakistan. This can result in prolonged heat spells, weaker winds, reduced rainfall, and even drought in some areas. In contrast, La Ni\u00f1a brings cooler ocean temperatures, often leading to stronger winds, increased rainfall, and cooler conditions across Pakistan and other parts of South Asia.<\/p>\n
Citing data from the World Meteorological Organisation, Zaigham added that current sea surface temperatures were already 0.5\u00b0C above normal. If this anomaly reached 0.8\u00b0C, the likelihood of El Ni\u00f1o forming in May rose sharply to 61%.<\/p>\n
With climate signals aligning and temperatures already trending above average, Pakistan may be heading into a summer where the heat does not just arrive-it tightens its grip.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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